With the 2018 Mid-Term election fast approaching this Tuesday, I foresee the following to be the most likely outcome:
- A net gain of 21 seats for Democrats in the House, with Republicans retaining a slight 221-214 majority, and
- A net gain of 2 seats for Republicans in the Senate, with Republicans holding a 53-47 majority
Despite the corporate media’s yearlong prediction of a blue wave crashing ashore to a Democratic Party landslide, the conventional wisdom now supposes modest gains for Republicans in the Senate and for Democrats in the House. Traditionally, the party of the President loses seats in the mid-term election. While that is likely to hold true in the House, it is not likely in the Senate due to mathematics. The number of incumbent seats Democrats must defend outnumbers the incumbent seats Republicans must defend. As a result, even with a political climate favoring Democrats, Democrats never truly had a realistic shot of taking the Senate.
Now, with Brett Kavanaugh’s farcical confirmation hearing having backfired on Democrats, motivating values voters, many of whom held their noses and voted for Donald Trump in 2016 due to his promise of conservative judicial appointments; the Central American Caravan invigorating President Trump’s anti-illegal immigrant base; and strong economic indicators encouraging Chamber of Commerce Republicans to head to the polls, the Democrats’ political advantage has waned. Consequently, Republican retention of the House appears more probable, especially given the strong turnout of early voting, Republicans’ preferred method.
In the Senate, I predict Republicans will gain seats in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, in large part due to the incumbent Democrats’ vote against the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh. I believe Democrats will gain the open seat in Arizona mostly as a result of the states’ changing demographics. This accounts for the net gain of 2 seats for the Republicans.
We shall see how these predictions pan out on election night. Feel free to post your predictions in the comments.