I predict President Donald Trump will win re-election tomorrow in a closer Electoral College margin than in 2016. Former Vice President Joe Biden will win the popular vote in a margin larger than Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, this will not be enough to overcome the Republican advantage in the Electoral College. Factors in my prediction include opinion polls, the shy Trump voter effect, demographic changes, and candidate favorability.
Like 2016, the shy Trump vote will be in full effect in 2020. This explains the discrepancy between the current opinion polling and my prediction. Shy Trump Voters are voters afraid of being labeled as “racist”, “sexist”, or bigoted due to their support for President Trump. They are afraid of violence against their selves or property, losing their job, and/or losing relationships with friends and family as a consequence of political association. The mainstream media is even more heavily tilted against Trump now than in 2016. Political violence and rioting, or at least the perception of it, is at a higher rate than in 2016. The BLM movement has become more prominent now than in 2016, particularly in sports leagues. BLM makes it clear that any modicum of support for Trump is racist. All of these factors discourage public pronouncements from Trump supporters, particularly to strangers on the phone.
If anything, the Shy Trump vote will be greater in 2020 than in 2016. My prediction for a lower Trump vote percentage in 2020 versus 2016 is not based on that, however. That prediction is based on demographic shifts as well as the more positive voter perception of Biden as compared to Hillary Clinton. I do not believe this will overcome the Electoral College advantages and the power of incumbency.