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With the House of Representatives voting to impeach President Trump yesterday, the Senate will now hold a trial and vote on whether to remove Trump from office. However, unless it goes back in session with unanimous consent, which seems unlikely, the Senate remains in recess until January 19. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would not call an emergency session until then.
Ten Republicans in the House of Representatives, including Liz Cheney of Wyoming, supported impeachment. At least two Republicans in the Senate, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, have called on the President to resign. Assuming that all 50 Senate Democrats vote for removal and that all 100 Senators vote, at least 17 Republicans must vote for removal in order for it to be successful. Let’s take a look at where all 50 current Republican Senators stand.
Richard Shelby (AL) – did not make any accusations of voter fraud but did not criticize Trump for it either, ultimately voted in favor of certification, did not blame Trump for the breach, votes with Trump 90.7 percent (likely NO)
Tommy Tuberville (AL) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ and PA (safe NO)
Lisa Murkowski (AK) – called on the President to resign (safe YES)
Dan Sullivan (AK) – “My own view is that [impeachment] would be an extreme remedy, given where we are, and I think the key thing — and given where we are is 12 days to inauguration — the key thing is the country needs to heal. And both for the outgoing president and the incoming president, a smooth transition, a peaceful transition, is critical.” – interview with Anchorage Daily News (likely NO)
John Boozman (AR) – did not make any accusations of voter fraud and supported Trump’s decision to contest the election, ultimately voted in favor of certification, said Trump made a “tragic mistake” and that there is “no question” Trump is responsible for the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 91.5 percent (toss up)
Tom Cotton (AR) – issued a statement: “Last week, I opposed the effort to reject certified electoral votes for the same reason—fidelity to the Constitution—I now oppose impeachment proceedings against a former president.” (safe NO)
Marco Rubio (FL) – said Trump “bears some responsibility” for the Capitol breach, but labeled impeachment efforts as “ridiculous” and argued it would turn Trump into a “martyr” (likely NO)
Rick Scott (FL) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in PA. Tweeted: “Impeachment does NOTHING to help American families or bring our country together.” (safe NO)
Mike Crapo (ID) – told his local media it was unlikely he would support removal (likely NO)
Jim Risch (ID) – supported the President’s right to contest the election, voted in favor of certification, did not blame the President for the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 88.2 percent (likely NO)
Todd Young (IN) – supported the President’s right to contest the election, voted in favor of certification, said “of course” Trump encouraged the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 82.2 percent (toss up)
Mike Braun (IN) – raised concerns about election fraud, planned to vote to contest the electors but changed his mind after the Capitol breach, did not blame the President for the breach (likely NO)
Chuck Grassley (IA) – said Trump “bears some responsibility” for the Capitol breach, but does not want an impeachment to interfere with the transition of power, votes with Trump 88.4 percent (likely NO)
Joni Ernst (IA) – raised concerns about election fraud, ultimately voted in favor of certification, did not blame Trump for Capitol breach, concerning impeachment she commented “Let’s move on,” votes with Trump 88.4 percent (likely NO)
Jerry Moran (KS) – supported the President’s right to contest the election, voted in favor of certification, did not publicly blame the President for the Capitol breach, liked a Tweet reporting the impeachment with a call for him to “be the wind,” votes with Trump 81.1 percent (toss up)
Roger Marshall (KS) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ and PA (safe NO)
Mitch McConnell (KY) – upset at the President for the loss in GA, signaled support for impeachment (likely YES)
Rand Paul (KY) – called the President irresponsible but called impeachment “stupid” and an “overreach” and told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Bill Cassidy (LA) – opposed the President’s contest of the election, retweeted speeches from fellow Republicans supporting certification, voted for certification, demanded the President stop the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 89.1 percent (toss up)
John Kennedy (LA) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ (safe NO)
Susan Collins (ME) – did not indicate whether she supported Trump in 2020, opposed the President’s contest of the election, voted for certification, said Trump “bears responsibility” and incited the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 65.1 percent (likely YES)
Roger Wicker (MS) – issued a statement opposing impeachment and removal, told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ and PA, told CBS she opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Roy Blunt (MO) – opposed impeachment, removal or resignation during an interview on Face the Nation, said the “president touched the hot stove Wednesday and is unlikely to touch it again.” Told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Josh Hawley (MO) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ and PA (safe NO)
Steve Daines (MT) – raised concerns about the legitimacy of the election, ultimately voted for certification, called impeachment an attempt to divide the nation, told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Deb Fischer (NE) – said she shared the concerns of her constituents about election integrity, but ultimately voted for certification, votes with Trump 89.1 percent (likely NO)
Ben Sasse (NE) – has a contentious relationship with the President, said the President “disregarded his oath” and that he would consider impeachment (likely YES)
Richard Burr (NC) – supported the President’s right to contest the election, but voted for certification, said the President “bears responsibility” for the Capitol breach and accused the President of spreading conspiracy theories, votes with Trump 89.3 percent (toss up)
Thom Tillis (NC) – supported the President’s efforts at contesting the election, voted for certification, did not publicly blame Trump for the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 90.6 percent (likely NO)
John Hoeven (ND) – raised concerns about election fraud, but voted for certification, did not publicly blame Trump for Capitol breach, argued that impeachment would only cause further division, votes with Trump 92.2 percent (safe NO)
Kevin Cramer (ND) – called Trump’s rhetoric reckless but felt it unclear whether he incited a riot, described impeachment as “theatrical”, votes with Trump 94.1 percent. Told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Rob Portman (OH) – said Trump “bears some responsibility” for the Capitol breach, said he would listen to both sides in a trial, votes with Trump 88.3 percent (toss up)
Jim Inhofe (OK) – supported Trump’s contest of the election but ultimately voted to certify, did not publicly blame Trump for the Capitol breach but wished he would have said more to stop it, noted the anger of Mike Pence, votes with Trump 89.8 percent (likely NO)
James Lankford (OK) – raised concerns about election fraud, planned to contest electors before the Capitol breach, afterwards criticized Trump’s rhetoric since the election, said impeachment “would pour gas on the fire.” (likely NO)
Pat Toomey (PA) – called on the President to resign (safe YES)
Lindsey Graham (SC) – called impeachment illegitimate and without evidence and said it would be unconstitutional to hold a trial for a former president, told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Tim Scott (SC) – Tweeted: “An impeachment vote will only lead to more hate and a deeply fractured nation. I oppose impeaching President Trump.” (safe NO)
John Thune (SD) – opposition to election contest strained relation with Trump, who called on Governor Noem to primary him, said Trump shared responsibility for the Capitol breach and wanted him to calm divisions afterwards, said the Republican Party needs to move on from Trump, votes with Trump 91.4 percent (toss up)
Mike Rounds (SD) – opposed efforts to contest the election, said Trump could potentially be criminally charged for his speech before the breach of the Capitol, but called impeachment efforts “moot” (toss up)
Marsha Blackburn (TN) – raised concerns about election fraud, planned to contest electors before the Capitol breach. Tweets: “To persist with impeachment now, with just days to go in the current administration, will further divide Americans and exacerbate tensions.” (safe NO)
Bill Hagerty (TN) – raised concerns about election fraud, planned to contest electors before the Capitol breach. Statement on impeachment: “At a time when the United States needs national healing and a true commitment to the rule of law, the American people should look to their legislators not to deepen partisan division, but to bring us together. There are seven days to go in the President’s term, and he has fully committed to a peaceful transfer of power.” (safe NO)
John Cornyn (TX) – supported a commission to examine election integrity, voted for certification, retweeted interview of Senator Manchin calling impeachment “ill-advised,” votes with Trump 92.2 percent. (likely NO)
Ted Cruz (TX) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in AZ and PA, told CBS he opposes impeachment (safe NO)
Mike Lee (UT) – opposed Trump’s efforts to contest the election leading Trump to say “I’m a little angry at him,” voted for certification, said he was “not pleased” with Trump’s remarks after the breach and that it may have been good for social media companies to lock the President’s accounts, votes with Trump 73.2 percent (toss up)
Mitt Romney (UT) – voted in favor of removal in the first impeachment (safe YES)
Shelley Moore Capito (WV) – opposed Trump’s efforts to contest the election, voted for certification, argued Trump “owns” the Capitol breach and that it was “inexcusable,” votes with Trump 92.1 percent (toss up)
Ron Johnson (WI) – raised concerns about election fraud, planned to contest electors before the Capitol breach (safe NO)
John Barrasso (WY) – voted for certification, did not criticize Trump publicly for the Capitol breach, votes with Trump 89.1 percent (likely NO)
Cynthia Lummis (WY) – voted in favor of the January 6 challenge of the electors in PA (safe NO)
Safe YES – 3
Likely YES – 3
Toss up – 10
Likely NO – 14
Safe NO – 20
